Majority of Australians Expect China to Overtake US by 2035

A recent Lowy Institute report reveals that over 50% of Australians believe China will become the world’s most powerful nation by 2035, reflecting a significant shift in public sentiment. Trust in the United States has plummeted to 36%, marking a 20-point decline from the previous year, as confidence in President Trump’s global strategy remains notably low at just 25%. Despite the diminishing trust, 63% of Australians still support the military alliance with the US, indicating a complex relationship in an evolving geopolitical landscape.

Background & Context

The escalating dynamics between Australia, China, and the United States have been shaped by historical tensions and varying diplomatic efforts. According to the annual polling conducted by the Lowy Institute, Australian public trust in the US has decreased, reflecting growing skepticism towards American reliability as an ally, especially in light of an increasingly assertive China. Previous attempts at diplomacy see-sawed between conflict and cooperation, creating a complex backdrop of economic interdependence amidst a looming trade war with China.

Key political figures, including Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, have influenced the trajectory of this trilateral relationship. Amidst concerns over a potential military conflict, discussions about the implications of China’s rising power continue to intensify in Australian society. Public debates on social media have highlighted anxieties regarding the future of US-China relations and the possibility of military engagement.

Key Developments & Timeline

In recent years, perceptions surrounding China and its role as a global superpower have shifted significantly in Australia. Below are the key events outlining this evolution:

March 2025: A population survey is conducted, revealing a considerable decline in trust towards the United States, with only 36% of Australians expressing confidence, a sharp 20-point decrease from 2024. At the same time, there is a rising recognition of China’s role as a potential economic power instead of merely a military threat.
June 2025: The Lowy Institute releases a report indicating that the majority of Australians now view China as a likely future superpower, with over 50% expecting it to be the world’s most powerful nation by 2035. This development marks a significant shift in public sentiment towards China’s military and economic capabilities.

The evolving viewpoint on China has implications for military readiness and regional security across the Asia-Pacific region. While trust in the US has diminished, support for the US-Australia military alliance remains strong, with 63% of Australians believing that the US would assist in the event of an attack, showcasing a complex relationship amidst the changing tides of global power.

This timeline encapsulates a critical period in the geopolitics of Australia, where public confidence in President Trump’s approach to world affairs stands notably low at 25%. Such developments can serve as indicators of Australia’s strategic positioning in a world marked by shifting alliances and the noticeable rise in China’s global influence.

Official Statements & Analysis

“The weight of expectation is that China will be more powerful and more predominant in the global system,” stated Ryan Neelam, the author of a recent poll conducted by the Lowy Institute. This sentiment reflects a growing belief among Australians that by 2035, China will emerge as the world’s most powerful nation. Trust in the United States has notably declined, with a recorded low of 36%, a staggering 20-point drop since 2024. Despite these shifting perceptions, support for the US-Australia military alliance remains high, with 63% of Australians believing that the US would respond to an attack on Australia.

The implications of these statements are substantial, particularly concerning military readiness and economic relations. As the trajectory shifts towards increased Chinese influence, Australia faces potential economic shifts that could affect resource availability and price stability. Acknowledging China as a potential economic partner, rather than solely viewing it as a military threat, indicates a necessary recalibration in Australia’s foreign policy. This evolution in perception is critical in the context of rising geopolitical risks, as nations redefine their strategies in response to global power dynamics. Ultimately, the discussion around China as a dominant player underscores the importance of resilience, both economically and in military preparedness, as Australia navigates these uncertain waters.

Conclusion

As we look ahead, the findings from the 2025 Lowy Institute report highlight a significant shift in Australian perceptions regarding global power dynamics, with many believing that China will surpass the United States by 2035. This growing skepticism towards the US has led to a potential reevaluation of national strategies, including a focus on self-sufficiency and military readiness in the context of potential threats, such as a war with China. Going forward, Australia may aim to balance its relationships between these two major powers, adapting its defense capabilities to navigate the complexities of a shifting geopolitical landscape that includes evolving views on trade and international alliances.

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