Russia-Ukraine War Outlook: Russians Expect End by 2026

Russia-Ukraine War Outlook: Russians See End by 2026

In the Russia-Ukraine war, a state-backed survey shows 70% of Russians expect 2026 to be more successful than 2025, with optimism tied to an end to the conflict and possible post-war reconstruction in occupied regions. The findings come as Zelenskyy proposed conditional troop withdrawals and a demilitarized zone monitored by international forces to support a ceasefire around Donbas and near Zaporizhzhia. Donbas remains a flashpoint, with Russia in control of most of Luhansk and about 70% of Donetsk, while diplomacy hinges on international monitors and high-level talks amid shifts in U.S. funding and EU leadership, and ongoing shifts in Western support.

Background & Context

The Russia Ukraine war began with Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, triggering intense fighting in the Donbas region, where Russia has established control over most of Luhansk and about 70% of Donetsk, making the Donbas front line a persistent focus of negotiations.
Geopolitically, the conflict has tested relations between Russia and the West, heightening Russia-NATO tensions and shaping broader security concerns around missile defense, deterrence, and regional power dynamics that extend beyond the immediate battlefield.
The United States and the European Union have been important external actors, providing military assistance and financial support whose pace and scale influence diplomatic leverage, with the Florida-drafted 20-point negotiation framework cited as a reference for potential progress.
Public opinion inside Russia is heavily influenced by state messaging, yet independent polling by the Levada Center has shown appreciable support for peace talks, highlighting a domestic dimension to the international diplomacy surrounding the war.
Key actors include Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the Russian government, alongside international observers and negotiators who envision demilitarized zones and monitored settlements as possible paths to de-escalation.
The Donbas negotiations remain central as discussions consider reconstruction plans in regions under control and the strategic implications of the conflict for regional stability through the coming years.

Key Developments & Timeline

2022: Start of the war in Ukraine; Donbas regions become focal points of conflict. In this year, fighting intensified in eastern Ukraine, with Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk) taking center stage as both Kyiv and Moscow pursued strategic aims. The Donbas front line emerged as the main theater of operations, drawing sharp international attention and setting the tone for a protracted conflict that would shape regional security for years to come, becoming a defining chapter of the Russia Ukraine war.
2025: Russian offensives continue; the year sees sustained military actions across the eastern front, maintaining pressure on Ukrainian defenses and keeping the strategic landscape highly dynamic. Commanders and observers monitor shifts in momentum, supply lines, and troop deployments, while political actors weigh potential escalation or de-escalation paths. The continuing Russian military buildup and offensive activity contribute to a volatile security environment within the broader Russia Ukraine war context.
2025: Zelenskyy discusses potential withdrawal of troops from eastern Ukraine if Moscow reciprocates and supports a demilitarized Donbas and a demilitarized zone around Zaporizhzhia. This position outlines a possible move toward negotiated arrangements, signaling how security concessions and reciprocal steps could alter the frontline dynamics and open room for diplomatic engagement in the ongoing conflict.
2025: The Florida-drafted 20-point negotiation plan is cited as a reference framework for talks between Ukraine and the U.S.; the plan envisions security and governance arrangements designed to end fighting. By providing a concrete structure for discussions, the plan helps frame potential terms of engagement, while progress ultimately depends on reciprocal concessions, international support, and sustained diplomatic momentum within the Russia Ukraine war landscape.
2025: Russia controls most of Luhansk and about 70% of Donetsk; Donbas remains the central dispute in any settlement. The territorial realities described here underscore the core challenge for negotiators: determining the future status of the Donbas and shaping a settlement that addresses security, governance, and regional stability while respecting international norms and monitoring mechanisms.

Official Statements & Analysis

A state-backed survey suggests Russians are cautiously optimistic about 2026, noting that "Expectations for next year traditionally look much more optimistic …", even as a negative view of the present lingers and residents weigh potential improvements against ongoing military strain in the Russia Ukraine war. It finds that "70 percent of 1,600 people surveyed viewed 2026 as a more ‘successful’ year for Russia than this year, with 55 percent" linking hope to a possible end to what Russia officially calls its ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine, signaling that optimism hinges on concrete political milestones.

Analysts say "the main reason for optimism is the possible completion of the special military operation and the achievement of the stated objectives," aligning with the president's national interests and a broader military strategy in the Russia Ukraine war. Zelenskyy said he would be willing to withdraw troops "if Moscow reciprocated by also pulling back and allowed the area to become a demilitarised zone monitored by international forces," a scenario that could extend to the Zaporizhzhia area, where "A similar arrangement could be possible for the area around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, which is currently under Russian control." Such discussions should be held at the leaders’ level, with Donbas remaining the most difficult point to resolve, as decisions on future control and a demilitarised economic zone will require tough negotiations, underscoring the ongoing political and security risks in the Russia Ukraine war.

Conclusion

The Russia Ukraine war has entered a phase where a negotiated settlement appears increasingly plausible, with prospects of demilitarized zones and international monitoring shaping the strategic outlook for both sides and regional actors. The main takeaway from this analysis is that while offensive operations persist, diplomatic efforts, humanitarian concerns, and public opinion trends are converging toward a settlement framework that emphasizes verification, credible diplomacy, trust-building, and phased steps rather than a decisive battlefield victory. Looking ahead, reconstruction and reintegration plans for Ukrainian territories and Russian-controlled areas will require sustained international support, transparent governance mechanisms, and durable security arrangements to prevent relapse, with international monitors and verification measures playing a central role. Future operations will likely revolve around a negotiated ceasefire, the possible withdrawal of forces in stages, and ongoing diplomatic engagement, while navigating questions about governance, border security, and energy and economic resilience in a volatile geopolitical environment, and regional stability for neighboring states.

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