Russia Officially Withdraws from INF Treaty, Raising Nuclear Arms Race Fears

On August 5, 2025, Russia formally announced its exit from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, following the United States’ withdrawal in 2019. The treaty, which banned land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, was a cornerstone of nuclear arms control since 1987. Russia cited the deployment of US missile platforms near Europe and the Asia-Pacific as threats to strategic balance, prompting its withdrawal amid heightened NATO tensions. The move leaves the New START treaty as the last significant arms control agreement, although Russia suspended participation in it in 2023. This development escalates concerns over renewed nuclear rivalry and global strategic instability.

Background & Context

The INF Treaty, signed in 1987 during the Cold War between the United States and the Soviet Union, was a landmark arms control agreement that eliminated an entire class of missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. This treaty significantly reduced the risk of a nuclear conflict in Europe by mandating the destruction of thousands of ballistic and cruise missiles on both sides. However, rising geopolitical tensions, including NATO expansion and conflicts such as the Russia Ukraine war, strained arms control frameworks. The US accused Russia of violating the treaty through deployment of prohibited missile types, a charge Russia denied.

The United States formally withdrew from the INF Treaty in 2019, followed by Russia’s official exit in 2025, dealing a severe blow to international arms control efforts. Although the New START Treaty, which limits deployed strategic nuclear weapons, remains active, it too faces challenges after Russia suspended its participation in 2023. These developments have generated concern among NATO members and arms control advocates over the prospect of a renewed arms race, with many viewing the end of the INF Treaty as a setback to global security architectures amid ongoing tensions between Russia and Western nations.

Key Developments & Timeline

The trajectory of global nuclear arms control has significantly shifted following the dissolution of pivotal treaties, heightening concerns over the Russia nuclear threat and geopolitical instability.

1987: The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty was signed between the United States and the USSR, banning land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers. This agreement led to the destruction of over 2,600 missiles, marking a critical step in arms control efforts.
2019: The United States formally withdrew from the INF Treaty, citing Russian violations, a move that precipitated the treaty’s effective collapse and increased military tensions.
2023: Russia suspended its participation in the New START Treaty, which remains the only major bilateral arms control agreement between the US and Russia, further unraveling global nuclear arms frameworks.
August 5, 2025: Russia announced its formal withdrawal from the INF Treaty, blaming NATO and US missile deployments near Europe and the Asia-Pacific region as provocations that jeopardized its national security.
Recent Years: The withdrawal of both major powers from key treaties has coincided with rising tensions over missile deployments by NATO, Russia, and China, fueling fears of a renewed nuclear arms race and destabilization of global security.

Russia’s decision to exit the INF Treaty, coupled with criticisms from former Russian President Medvedev of NATO policies and the repositioning of US nuclear submarines near Russian waters, reflects deepening distrust and escalating Russia NATO tensions. These developments signal a deteriorating nuclear arms control environment with increased risk of military escalation, underscoring the critical need for renewed diplomatic efforts to manage Russia nuclear weapons and prevent further conflict.

Official Statements & Analysis

On August 5, 2025, Russia officially withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, following the United States’ exit in 2019. The INF Treaty, enacted in 1987, had banned land-based ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers, significantly reducing missile deployments across Europe and Asia-Pacific. Moscow justified its withdrawal by citing the deployment of US missile platforms near Russia’s borders as a strategic threat, signaling a new phase of heightened Russia NATO tensions and nuclear arms competition. Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that this withdrawal creates “a new reality” that opposing powers must acknowledge. In response, the US repositioned nuclear submarines closer to Russian waters, reflecting increased strategic posturing amid escalating nuclear rhetoric.

While the INF Treaty dismantled over 2,600 missiles from both sides, its collapse, alongside Russia’s suspension of participation in the New START Treaty since 2023, leaves serious uncertainties in global nuclear arms control. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov urged caution with nuclear rhetoric, warning of the risks inherent in a less regulated environment. The dissolution of these arms agreements raises the risk of rapid missile deployments with limited warning, increasing geopolitical instability and underscoring the importance of preparedness through secure shelters and vigilant monitoring of official security developments. This growing nuclear threat dynamic profoundly impacts regional and global strategic security environments amid the ongoing Russia Ukraine war and broader geopolitical conflict.

Conclusion

The formal withdrawal of Russia from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty on August 5, 2025, marks a significant turning point in global arms control amid the ongoing Russia Ukraine war. This move, driven by concerns over US missile deployments in Europe and Asia-Pacific, escalates fears of a renewed arms race with increased deployment of intermediate-range missiles. The dissolution of this key treaty, combined with Russia’s suspension of the New START agreement, heightens geopolitical instability and strategic security risks. As NATO responds by enhancing military readiness and weapons development accelerates, sustained international diplomatic efforts will be crucial to managing escalation and reducing the risk of nuclear confrontation in this fractious global environment.

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